{"id":11427,"date":"2022-01-26T17:57:10","date_gmt":"2022-01-26T17:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.swanislandnetworks.com\/clone_backup\/?page_id=11427"},"modified":"2022-02-11T00:09:04","modified_gmt":"2022-02-11T00:09:04","slug":"russia-ukraine-conflict","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.swanislandnetworks.com\/clone_backup\/global-intelligence-reports\/russia-ukraine-conflict","title":{"rendered":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Timeline<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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February 9th, 2022
<\/b><\/strong>According to\u00a0CNN<\/a>, The White House approved a plan to help Americans evacuate from Ukraine if Russia invades.<\/p>

Tuesday, February 8th
<\/b><\/strong>President Macron announced that President Putin told him he would not further escalate tensions with Ukraine (Associated Press<\/a>).<\/p>

Monday, February 7th
<\/b><\/strong>German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht announces the deployment of extra forces to Lithuania (DW<\/a>).<\/p>

UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace announces the deployment of 350 troops to Poland (Mirror<\/a>).<\/p>

Following a meeting with President Macron, President Putin warned European countries would be drawn into military conflict if Ukraine joins NATO. (Sky News<\/a>, Reuters<\/a>)<\/p>

February 3rd, 2022
<\/b><\/strong>According to Axios<\/a>, US officials discovered information indicating that Russia is planning to stage a “fabricated attack,” including use of a “propaganda video” to justify an invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>

The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, said the probability of a Russian invasion is “low” and was glad to see US officials stopped referring to a Russian attack as “imminent” (Associated Press<\/a>).<\/div>
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February 2nd, 2022<\/b>
<\/strong>The Pentagon <\/a>announces the deployment of around 3,000 troops to\u00a0Poland, Germany, and Romania to bolster NATO presence.<\/p>

February 1st, 2022
<\/strong>According to CNN<\/a>, President Putin said it was clear Russia’s main security concerns “had been ignored” when studying the response to the Kremlin’s demands from the United States and NATO.<\/p>

January 31st, 2022<\/strong>
The United States and Russia discussed the military buildup at the Ukrainian border during a meeting at the UN Security Council. Russian leaders said the meeting was an example of “megaphone diplomacy.” The council voted to continue with the meeting, with only Russia and China voting to end it (Associated Press<\/a>).<\/p>

During the meeting at the UN Security Council, US officials said they have evidence that Russia plans to expand their military presence by more than 30,000 troops in Belarus by early February (Tweet from @Olivia_Gazis<\/a>).<\/p><\/div>

According to CNN<\/a>, officials in the United States received Russia’s response to their security proposal.<\/p>

January 30th, 2022<\/strong>
According to\u00a0Reuters<\/a>, the Ukrainian police arrested a group of people suspected of “preparing mass riots in the capital Kyiv and other cities to cause instability as tensions rise with neighboring Russia.”<\/p>

January 28th, 2022<\/strong>
According to CNN<\/a>, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley warns if Russia invades Ukraine the outcome would be “horrific” and lead to “significant” casualties.<\/p>

According to\u00a0CNN<\/a>, President Zelenskyy says world leaders are “overstating the likelihood” of a war between Ukraine and Russia.<\/p>

According to\u00a0Reuters<\/a>, blood supplies and other medical materials were moved to Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine.<\/p>

January 27th, 2022<\/strong>
President Biden reportedly said a Russian invasion is “virtually certain,” while talking to President Zelenskyy (Tweet from Alexander Marquardt<\/a>).<\/p>

According to\u00a0CNN<\/a>, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby announced that there was “more accumulation of credible combat forces arrayed by the Russians, in, again, the western part of their country and in Belarus” in the last 24 hours.<\/p>

January 26th, 2022<\/strong><\/div>

According to the\u00a0Associated Press<\/a>, Russia warned it would take “retaliatory measures” if their security demands are rejected.<\/p>

According to the Associated Press<\/a>, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US made “no concessions to the main Russian demands over Ukraine and NATO in a written response delivered Wednesday to Moscow.”<\/p>

According to Reuters<\/a>, unidentified hackers “took down a promotional website for Ukraine’s foreign ministry for several hours.”<\/p>

US Embassy<\/a> urges US citizens in Ukraine to consider departing now “using commercial or other privately available transportation options.”<\/p>

According to DW News<\/a>, political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France have agreed to an “unconditional observance of the cease fire” in eastern Ukraine. Another meeting between the four countries will be held in Berlin in two weeks.<\/p>

January 24th, 2022<\/strong><\/div>

US Embassy<\/a> issued “Do not Travel” Advisory for Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III placed 8,500 US service members to “heightened preparedness to deploy given Russia’s continuing provocations along its border with Ukraine.”<\/p>

According to CNN<\/a>, NATO announced that some member countries are “putting forces on standby and sending additional ships and fighter jets to eastern Europe.”<\/p>

According to ABC<\/a>, the US Department of Homeland Security warns that a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead to a cyberattack against the US.<\/p>

January 23rd, 2022<\/strong>
According to the\u00a0New York Times<\/a>, the US ordered family members of US Embassy personnel to leave the country.<\/p>

January 22nd, 2022<\/strong>
The\u00a0Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development office<\/a>\u00a0in the United Kingdom accuses the Kremlin of seeking to \u201cinstall a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv.\u201d<\/p>

January 21st, 2022<\/strong>
Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov<\/a>\u00a0said ignoring Russia\u2019s security concerns would entail \u201cthe most serious consequences.\u201d<\/p>

January 19th, 2022<\/strong>
Global Affairs Canada<\/a>\u00a0experiences a cyberattack.<\/p>

January 17th, 2022<\/strong>
According to a briefing from the\u00a0US State Department<\/a>, Russian troops move towards Belarus for military drills.<\/p>

January 14th, 2022<\/strong>
According to\u00a0Reuters<\/a>, around 70 government sites in Ukraine were hit by a cyberattack.<\/p>

January 2nd, 2022<\/strong>
In a call with President Zelenskyy,\u00a0President Biden<\/a>\u00a0said the United States and its allies \u201cwill respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>

December 30th, 2021<\/strong>
In a call with President Putin,\u00a0President Biden<\/a>\u00a0laid out two paths for Russia: \u201cdiplomacy leading towards a de-escalation of the situation\u201d and a path \u201cmore focused on deterrence, including serious costs and consequences should Russia choose to proceed with a further invasion of Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>

December 16th, 2021<\/strong>
In a meeting with President Zelenskyy,\u00a0NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg<\/a>\u00a0said \u201cany further aggression against Ukraine will have severe consequences. And would carry a high price.\u201d<\/p>

December 7th, 2021<\/strong>
President Biden<\/a>\u00a0said the US and European allies would respond with \u201cstrong economic measures, provide additional defense material to Ukraine, and fortify our NATO allies on the eastern flank\u201d if Russia further invades Ukraine.<\/p>

November 30th, 2021<\/strong>
During the Meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Riga, Latvia,\u00a0NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg<\/a>\u00a0warns that Russia will face consequences if aggression continues.<\/p>

November 10th, 2021<\/strong>
US Department of Defense<\/a>\u00a0reports buildup of Russian forces near Ukrainian border.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict<\/h1>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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In November 2021, satellite images showed a buildup of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, sparking fear of a possible invasion. It was later confirmed that Russia mobilized around 100,000 soldiers in the border area (The ASEAN Post<\/a>). In diplomatic discussions, Russian leaders expressed concerns with Ukraine\u2019s desire\u00a0to join NATO and the possibility for NATO to set up military training centers in the country (Al Jazeera<\/a>). Russian leaders presented security proposals including demands that \u201cUkraine not be admitted into NATO, and that the alliance end its security cooperation with Ukraine.\u201d Many of these proposals were seen as nonstarters from Western officials (NYT<\/a>). However, diplomatic paths to de-escalation remain likely as conflict persists in the region (Foreign Policy<\/a>).<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Ukrainian Defense Ministry map of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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International Response<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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NATO – <\/strong>NATO said on Monday, January 24th it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets, in what Russia denounced as Western “hysteria” in response<\/a> to its build-up of troops on the Ukraine border (Reuters<\/a>).<\/p>

United States – <\/strong>US President Joe Biden has said he would consider imposing economic sanctions personally targeting Vladimir Putin if the Russian president orders a new attack on Ukraine (Al Jazeera<\/a>). The U.S. Department of Defense in Washington said about 8,500 American troops were put on heightened alert and were awaiting orders to deploy to the region, should Russia invade Ukraine (Reuters<\/a>). A new alert from the US Embassy in Kyiv urges U.S. citizens in Ukraine to consider departing now. \u201cThe security situation in Ukraine continues to be unpredictable due to the increased threat of Russian military action and can deteriorate with little notice” (Christopher Miller<\/a>).<\/p>

The United States delivered a written response to the Kremlin\u2019s security demands on Ukraine and NATO amid soaring tensions that Moscow is planning to invade its neighbor, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. The U.S. hasn\u2019t made its response public, but already has warned that Russia\u2019s top demands are unacceptable (AP<\/a>). The White House announced that President Joe Biden and new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will discuss Russian aggression toward Ukraine during a Feb. 7 meeting in Washington (AP<\/a>). Joe Biden said he plans to designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally, granting a special status to a key ally in the Middle East (Jerusalem Post<\/a>).<\/p>

The Pentagon<\/a> announced the deployment of around 3,000 troops to Poland, Germany, and Romania to bolster NATO presence.<\/p>

The United States has offered to provide more transparency about missile deployments in Eastern Europe in response to Russian security demands, but it rejected Moscow\u2019s insistence that NATO guarantee it would never expand to countries near Russia, including Ukraine, Sweden and Finland (NYT<\/a>).<\/p>

U.S. President Joe Biden has threatened to\u00a0block the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline<\/a>\u00a0if Russia invades Ukraine.<\/p>

The White House has approved a plan presented by the Pentagon for the nearly 2,000 US troops in Poland to help Americans who may try to evacuate Ukraine if Russia invades (CNN<\/a>).<\/p>

Russia –<\/strong> According to the Associated Press<\/a>, Russia warned it would take “retaliatory measures” if their security demands are rejected. Moscow has demanded guarantees that NATO will never admit the country and other ex-Soviet nations as members and that the alliance will roll back troop deployments in other former Soviet bloc nations. Some of these, like the membership pledge, are nonstarters for NATO, creating a seemingly intractable stalemate that many fear can only end in a war. Russia has warned it would quickly take \u201cretaliatory measures\u201d if the U.S. and its allies reject its demands.<\/p>

According to Axios<\/a>, US officials discovered information indicating that Russia is planning to stage a “fabricated attack,” including use of a “propaganda video” to justify an invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>

United Kingdom – <\/strong>The UK is withdrawing some of its staff from its Ukraine embassy amid growing fears of an invasion by Russia. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has confirmed some staff in Kyiv and their families will begin withdrawing in response to the \u201cgrowing threat\u201d from Russia (Independent<\/a>). The UK has also begun supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons (Al Jazeera<\/a>).<\/p>

Britain urged Russian President Vladimir Putin on\u00a0 Monday, January 31st to “step back from the brink” over Ukraine, warning that any incursion would trigger sanctions against companies and people with close links to the Kremlin (Reuters<\/a>).<\/p>

The UK advises against all travel to Donetsk oblast, Luhansk oblast and Crimea. The UK advises against all but essential travel to the rest of Ukraine (UK Government<\/a>).<\/p>

UK is sending 350 troops to Poland as fears mount that Russia will invade Ukraine (Mirror<\/a>).<\/span><\/p>

China –<\/strong> China has joined Russia in opposing further Nato expansion as the two countries move closer together in the face of Western pressure (BBC<\/a>).<\/p>

Canada – <\/strong>The Canadian government says it’s withdrawing the family members of diplomatic staff stationed in Ukraine amid heightened fears of a Russian invasion (CBC<\/a>). Canada has reportedly deployed a small contingent of special forces to Kyiv amid concerns of a possible invasion by Russia and loaned $120 million to Ukraine (Al Jazeera<\/a>, Toronto Sun<\/a>). Trudeau authorized the extension of Operation Unifier in Ukraine for three more years, as well as “immediate support.”
The CAF will deploy 60 personnel within days to join the approximately 200 women and men already on the ground (Rachel Gilmore<\/a>).<\/p>

Canadians should avoid all travel to\u00a0Ukraine<\/a>\u00a0due to the growing risk of an armed conflict with\u00a0Russia<\/a>, the federal government warns.<\/p>

Ottawa updated its travel advisory to Ukraine after previously advising Canadians to avoid only non-essential travel, and to evaluate if their presence was essential in the eastern European nation. The federal government is now warning against any travel to Ukraine and urged all Canadians currently in the country to leave Monday, February 7th as concerns about war with Russia escalate (CTV News<\/a>,Global News<\/a>, Canadian Government<\/a>).<\/p>

France – <\/strong>France\u2019s foreign ministry on Monday advised French nationals to avoid non-essential travel to Ukraine as tensions soared over the Russian military buildup, prompting NATO allies to put forces on standby and send ships and fighter jets to bolster Europe’s eastern defenses (France24<\/a>). France also says it\u2019s ready to send troops to Romania (NBC<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>

The European Commission – <\/strong>President von der Leyen released a statement committing EU financial support for Ukraine (European Union<\/a>).<\/p>

Baltic Nations – <\/strong>The Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will send U.S.-made anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine in a move that Washington says it is fully endorsing amid Kyiv’s escalating tensions with Russia (CBS<\/a>).<\/p>

Spain – <\/strong>Spain sent warships to join NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea as tension in the region rises over the Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border, Defense Minister Margarita Robles said on Thursday (Reuters<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>

Denmark –<\/strong> Denmark is sending F-16 fighter jets to nearby Lithuania (NBC<\/a>).<\/p>

Germany –<\/strong> Germany will supply 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine to help defend against a possible Russian invasion, it said on Wednesday (Reuters)<\/a>. The White House announced that President Joe Biden and new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will discuss Russian aggression toward Ukraine during a Feb. 7 meeting in Washington (AP<\/a>).<\/p>

The German broadcasting regulator has banned the transmission of the German-language channel of Russian state broadcaster RT, amid rising tensions between Moscow and the West (Al Jazeera<\/a>,Tweet from Samuel Ramani<\/a>).<\/p>

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said extra forces will be deployed to Lithuania amid regional tensions with Russia. The deployment there could be Germany’s second largest after Mali (DW<\/a>).<\/p>

Czech Republic –<\/strong> The Czech Republic will donate 4,000 artillery shells to Ukraine (AFP<\/a>).<\/p>

Israel –<\/strong> Israel warned Ukrainian Jews to be ready for evacuation to Israel on Tuesday as the threat of Russian invasion looms over Ukraine (The Jerusalem Post<\/a>).<\/p>

Australia –<\/strong> Australia is negotiating new measures to help the Ukraine government defend itself against a wave of cyber attacks. Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne has asked top security officials to discuss the cyber assistance with their Ukrainian counterparts, in a significant move to intensify Australian support for Ukraine with a message to Russia to \u201cde-escalate\u201d tensions (The Sydney Morning Herald<\/a>).<\/p>

Ireland –<\/strong> The Russian navy is to go ahead with live fire exercises off the coast of Ireland despite heightened tensions with the West over Ukraine, the Irish fishing industry said on Thursday, January 27th. Irish Fish Processors and Exporters Association (IFPEA) representatives held talks with Russian ambassador to Dublin Yury Filatov and a “fair deal” was reached for the drills and fishing to continue. Ireland is neutral and not a NATO member (The Moscow Times<\/a>).<\/p>

Qatar –<\/strong> President Biden is meeting with the Emir of the State of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, to discuss exporting gas to Europe amid rising fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine (US DOD<\/a>, The Hill)<\/a><\/p>

Italy –<\/strong> The defense ministry on Monday denied media reports that Russian ships were violating Italian waters by sailing through the Sicilian Channel.
It said the formation was sailing through international waters and NATO had been following the path of the naval group since it set out in mid-January from the ports of Severomorsk (North Fleet) and Baltijsk (Baltic Fleet).
NATO is continuing to monitor the flotilla, defence chiefs of staff said (ANSA<\/a>).<\/p>

Poland –<\/strong> Speaking in Kyiv, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki promised defensive weaponry including drones and anti-aircraft missiles but also humanitarian aid. Poland has said it is preparing for a potential big influx of Ukrainian refugees if Russia attacks (BBC<\/a>).<\/p>

Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary said on Tuesday that proposed sanctions against Russia if it takes military action against Ukraine would be \u201cdoomed to failure\u201d and that Russian security demands were reasonable.<\/p>

Visiting Moscow, Mr. Orban met privately for five hours with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, and afterward said at an amiable news conference with Mr. Putin that he \u201cdid not see any intention\u201d for Russia to escalate the conflict with Ukraine (NYT<\/a>).<\/p>

Turkey –<\/strong> In a public rebuke of Russia, Turkey will expand supplies of one of the Ukrainian Army\u2019s most sophisticated weapons, a long-range, Turkish-made armed drone (NYT<\/a>).<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/div>

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Map from John Hopkins University of approximately 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukraine border, surrounding the nation on three sides<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Map of NATO positions around Ukraine from The Telegraph<\/h6>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Track developments surrounding the conflict with our Russia-Ukraine Tensions Monitor on TX360<\/a> by signing up for our free demo:<\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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